The Russians are Coming!
Gentlemen, start your calculators!
Just when you thought it was safe to await the Hy-Vee shootout at Des Moines between Hunter Kemper and Andy Potts for the third and final place on the U.S. men’s 2008 Olympic team, the International Triathlon Union announced there was a little wrinkle that must be taken care of first.
After the recent World Cup in Tongyeong, South Korea, the U.S. men currently are the eighth (and last) nation to have earned enough qualifying points to receive three slots for the Beijing Olympics.
Russian men, who stand ninth in the national pecking order and currently would receive two Olympic starts, are just 53 points - the number of Olympic qualifying points allotted for a 29th-place finish in a normal World Cup - behind the U.S.
In the complex Olympic qualifying system set up by the ITU, the criteria separating the two nations is simple. Whichever nation’s third-ranking triathlete has the most points by the end of the Olympic-qualifying period after the world championship in Vancouver June 8, will rank the nation eighth and get the three Olympic slots.
Currently, recently injury-plagued U.S. star Hunter Kemper, who has been off the ITU circuit recovering from hip and leg injuries, has dropped to third American and 39th overall in the men’s Olympic qualifying rankings with 2,359 points.
The third-ranked Russian and 43rd overall in the Olympic qualifying points standings is Dimitry Polyansky, who has 2,306 points.
But the ultimate calculations are far more complex, so buckle up, nerds, and try to follow the dizzying blizzard of numbers.
The Olympic triathlon qualifying points cover World Cups, Continental Cup championships and world championships, which receive double points. The cumulative point totals for the 2008 Olympics in Beijing are divided into two parts. The first period includes each athlete’s best seven results from 2006. The second set of qualifying points includes the best nine results in 2007 and the first half of 2008.
According to ITU standards, normal World Cup points allotted for Olympic rankings range from 500 for first place to 22 for 50th place. The future scenario contains some bad news but mostly good news for the American cause.
The bad news is that Polyansky is set to race at the World Cup in Richards Bay, South Africa this weekend, and Hunter Kemper is not. Theoretically, a 29th place for Polyansky would guarantee that Russia would pass the U.S. for eighth place in Olympic rankings and drop the U.S. men to two slots for Beijing. However, since Polyansky already has 12 results, with his ninth best and current lowest valid result is 126 points, Polyansky needs to score a 14th-place finish with 181 points to pass Kemper. With a lot of motivation and not the deepest field on the World Cup circuit expected in South Africa, Polyansky has a very good chance of doing so.
Adding to the tension, Polyansky will also be competing at the European Continental Championship the following week, which offer a range from 400 points for first to 42 points for 30th. If Polyansky scores 15th or better, he can add to his presumed lead over Kemper in Olympic qualifying points.
The good news, the U.S. trump cards so to speak, which is allowing Kemper and U.S. Elite manager Scott Schnitzspahn to sleep at night, are the final two races in the current Olympic qualifying sector. The first is the Madrid ITU World Cup in two weeks. Both Kemnper and Matt Reed are entered, as is Polyansky. The final race is the ITU world championship at Vancouver June 8.
That is the final event counting for 2008 Olympic qualifying points, and double the usual World Cup points are at stake.
Adding to the U.S. men’s advantage, as of now Kemper only has two races counting toward the 2007-2008 second Olympic qualifying period, so he won’t have to throw out any previously earned points at Madrid or Vancouver, while Polyansky will have to surpass 125 or so points at any of his remaining races to add to his total.
With the winner at Vancouver earning 1,000 Olympic qualifying points, 10th place 496 and 20th garnering 227, a healthy Kemper or a Reed who stays on his current race-winning roll, should pick up more than enough points to shut the door on Polyansky’s bid.
There is another scenario by which the U.S. men could shut down the Russians. Red-hot Matt Reed currently stands fifth American and 54th overall in Olympic qualification points. Reed is currently scheduled to race at Richards Bay and Madrid and thus his total of 1,833 points could theoretically leapfrog past Polyanskiy were Reed to win and score 500 Olympic qualifying points this weekend - and Polyansky failed to place 15th or better.
Furthermore, if the issue were still in doubt at Vancouver and Kemper ran into bad luck there, good results for Reed at Richards Bay, Madrid and Vancouver would assuredly block Polyansky’s Beijing bid.
Still following the numbers?
The U.S. men can retain their third Olympic slot if their third-place points man can pass current No. 7 Switzerland, No. 6 Australia or No. 5 Canada in the home stretch.
Kemper trails Switzerland’s third man Olivier Marceau by a mere 93 points, Australia’s third-place man Brent Sexton by 148 points and Canada’s third-place triathlete Brent McMahon by 275 points. If Kemper or Reed can close with enough points to move ahead of one of these three men, all the nervousness and paranoia will be over.
Still, all this last-minute points anxiety can’t be great for Kemper, who is backed into a corner looking for a precious third Olympic qualification.
Not unlike 2000, when Kemper burned out chasing Olympic qualifying points to get three U.S. men into the Sydney Games, it is largely up to the 31-year-old Colorado Springs star to do it again in 2008.
Chief rival Andy Potts, who has remained healthy the last two years, has plenty of points and whatever he might do at Vancouver would not have any effect in the fight to stop Polyansky. Therefore, Potts is scheduled to defend his title at Escape From Alcatraz the weekend of ITU Worlds.
Kemper might have wanted to rest and taper for the scheduled showdown with Potts at Hy-Vee. But it looks like America’s most decorated Olympic-distance triathlete will once again have to put his nation's Olympic triathlon interests on his shoulders. He has to hope that a solid hit out at Madrid and/or Vancouver will prime him for the shootout at the Hy-Vee Corral two weeks later.
Ironically, Kemper could save his nation's honor once again - and still be on the outside looking in for that coveted final ticket to Beijing if he loses to Potts in Des Moines.
